* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/01/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 51 59 64 69 76 77 81 82 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 51 59 64 69 76 77 81 82 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 31 36 41 45 48 51 53 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 23 24 20 21 16 7 11 8 3 6 6 11 10 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 3 4 5 9 4 6 10 8 9 9 12 6 1 SHEAR DIR 336 337 341 347 353 6 9 353 6 14 340 239 316 44 71 52 65 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 157 155 150 150 152 152 153 154 153 146 141 137 134 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 83 83 82 80 77 78 76 72 64 60 51 50 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 24 26 27 26 28 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -14 -10 -10 -24 -16 -9 17 25 49 53 47 37 26 13 -13 -20 200 MB DIV 67 50 49 57 82 104 57 83 77 79 72 56 34 -3 9 22 26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 3 2 2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 918 978 1047 1105 1165 1255 1329 1402 1458 1482 1496 1551 1683 1861 2068 2185 2172 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.0 10.1 10.8 12.1 13.8 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.9 33.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 6 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 17 17 18 20 21 22 21 20 19 17 15 15 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 45. 49. 53. 54. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 15. 11. 13. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 26. 34. 39. 44. 51. 52. 56. 57. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 24.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/01/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.6% 9.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 18.5% 7.6% 4.0% 3.0% 7.4% 7.9% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 2.1% Consensus: 2.3% 13.3% 5.9% 3.5% 1.0% 2.8% 5.6% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.6% 7.1% 3.4% 1.7% .5% 1.4% 2.8% 3.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/01/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 51 59 64 69 76 77 81 82 88 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 36 42 49 57 62 67 74 75 79 80 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 38 45 53 58 63 70 71 75 76 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 31 38 46 51 56 63 64 68 69 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT