* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 38 44 49 55 62 66 72 70 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 38 44 49 55 62 66 72 70 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 30 32 34 38 43 47 49 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 24 22 29 32 27 25 17 16 8 7 13 18 21 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 6 6 0 5 7 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 343 343 343 349 358 360 360 20 356 355 332 326 343 28 48 47 38 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 155 156 156 152 150 152 150 153 154 154 149 139 137 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 85 84 82 81 77 76 76 73 69 61 54 53 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 13 16 18 21 24 27 29 29 32 32 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -8 -19 -27 -28 -31 -21 5 25 50 70 63 45 20 -6 -13 0 200 MB DIV 73 69 58 46 66 107 118 80 100 114 111 103 77 44 40 14 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 1 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 866 926 997 1058 1105 1190 1270 1341 1375 1371 1355 1380 1511 1731 1996 2222 2188 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.5 9.8 9.4 9.8 11.2 13.0 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.7 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 30.2 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 1 5 8 11 11 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 17 17 17 18 21 23 21 19 18 18 13 14 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 46. 50. 53. 54. 57. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -15. -21. -24. -24. -23. -25. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. 16. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 30. 37. 41. 47. 45. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 24.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.5% 9.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.3% 4.8% 1.5% 0.7% 1.9% 2.6% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% Consensus: 1.8% 10.7% 4.9% 2.6% 0.3% 0.8% 3.8% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .9% 5.8% 2.4% 1.3% .1% .4% 1.9% 1.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/01/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 38 44 49 55 62 66 72 70 70 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 32 36 42 47 53 60 64 70 68 68 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 28 32 38 43 49 56 60 66 64 64 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 26 32 37 43 50 54 60 58 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT