* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 41 48 50 58 64 71 73 72 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 41 48 50 58 64 71 73 72 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 28 29 30 31 35 40 47 53 57 58 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 23 23 29 27 20 8 10 8 10 13 24 23 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 0 -1 -1 -3 0 4 4 4 4 5 3 10 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 354 353 352 355 5 11 7 33 12 358 341 339 17 30 43 28 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 157 156 154 151 150 149 150 152 153 148 138 138 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.9 -53.1 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 85 85 84 83 80 79 79 77 74 68 62 54 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 13 14 17 19 20 23 25 27 28 29 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 -9 -20 -21 -32 -24 -11 19 43 70 63 44 32 10 -22 -24 200 MB DIV 88 97 74 59 56 80 94 105 128 96 57 62 84 17 45 27 2 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 838 911 981 1042 1090 1175 1216 1254 1302 1317 1290 1295 1395 1579 1838 2088 2215 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.0 12.5 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.1 24.8 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.3 30.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 3 2 3 7 10 12 12 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 18 17 17 17 18 20 20 18 18 17 13 13 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 34. 40. 45. 49. 53. 54. 57. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -11. -16. -18. -18. -18. -21. -24. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 23. 25. 33. 39. 46. 48. 47. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 24.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 15.7% 9.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 21.4% 9.0% 3.5% 2.0% 4.2% 4.3% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 6.0% Consensus: 2.7% 14.2% 6.6% 3.4% 0.7% 1.7% 4.5% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/30/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 41 48 50 58 64 71 73 72 71 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 47 55 61 68 70 69 68 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 29 34 41 43 51 57 64 66 65 64 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 27 34 36 44 50 57 59 58 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT