* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SARA AL192024 11/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 66 68 69 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 66 68 54 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 53 59 66 55 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 8 4 9 7 9 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 321 4 8 19 310 317 348 46 25 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 157 157 158 158 159 158 158 157 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 3 5 4 5 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 80 75 72 65 65 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 85 84 85 85 78 70 69 47 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 72 71 90 110 96 83 62 36 13 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 12 9 17 13 13 34 65 -46 -123 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.5 17.0 18.4 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.6 85.2 85.4 85.7 86.1 86.7 87.6 88.7 90.1 91.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 2 2 3 5 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 39 38 39 40 40 41 42 35 2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 9. 5. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 31. 33. 34. 30. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 84.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 48.4% 32.4% 17.7% 7.4% 27.9% 30.6% 54.9% Logistic: 20.5% 67.3% 46.8% 35.5% 25.4% 42.4% 43.2% 76.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 46.7% 16.0% 8.2% 4.6% 12.0% 12.5% 45.6% Consensus: 10.4% 54.1% 31.8% 20.5% 12.5% 27.4% 28.8% 58.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.7% 31.0% 17.4% 11.2% 6.7% 14.7% 14.9% 29.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 SARA 11/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 55 63 66 68 54 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 49 57 60 62 48 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 49 52 54 40 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 41 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT