* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192024 11/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 66 71 74 73 69 64 64 66 65 58 47 39 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 58 69 72 71 46 33 36 38 37 31 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 55 61 69 74 50 34 40 46 51 47 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 10 9 3 6 6 11 6 4 6 10 43 66 89 100 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 12 17 1 3 SHEAR DIR 335 323 355 16 25 331 338 339 44 75 28 268 211 198 211 216 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.0 25.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 155 155 157 158 158 159 159 160 157 147 142 140 128 108 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 7 6 6 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 79 80 79 74 70 67 67 64 64 56 50 40 31 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 5 6 8 10 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 84 96 91 100 97 88 77 61 64 36 28 2 30 59 67 86 200 MB DIV 61 100 108 111 129 102 87 69 31 1 27 54 88 83 53 13 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 6 5 4 7 -9 -3 -64 -76 LAND (KM) 68 32 12 8 22 -1 22 46 54 -88 -47 109 266 397 193 -100 78 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.5 18.9 20.8 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.9 84.7 85.0 85.4 85.9 86.2 86.8 87.8 89.1 90.6 91.5 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 5 3 3 2 2 4 7 9 10 10 13 18 20 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 39 40 40 40 41 43 43 23 10 12 14 13 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 6. -2. -12. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -19. -20. -19. -16. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 36. 39. 38. 34. 29. 29. 31. 30. 23. 12. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 83.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 47.0% 30.3% 10.4% 6.9% 28.9% 38.6% 61.6% Logistic: 16.3% 61.0% 36.1% 19.4% 12.3% 36.2% 54.0% 75.4% Bayesian: 4.4% 46.2% 14.9% 4.0% 2.2% 30.0% 41.0% 69.2% Consensus: 8.7% 51.4% 27.1% 11.3% 7.1% 31.7% 44.5% 68.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.8% 30.7% 15.0% 6.6% 4.0% 16.3% 22.7% 34.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 58 58 69 72 71 46 33 36 38 37 31 22 20 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 52 63 66 65 40 27 30 32 31 25 16 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 43 54 57 56 31 18 21 23 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 31 42 45 44 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT