* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192024 11/14/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 62 66 64 64 65 69 74 70 66 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 33 34 31 29 28 27 29 26 26 27 34 30 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 33 33 30 28 27 27 33 32 29 27 35 38 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 9 11 5 8 7 10 10 5 0 8 11 37 55 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 0 1 4 5 0 10 15 13 4 SHEAR DIR 356 327 334 349 4 15 345 19 25 86 70 170 302 232 220 216 205 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.2 28.1 26.9 25.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 161 155 154 154 154 153 154 158 157 160 160 140 141 127 108 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 6 5 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 79 80 80 80 82 78 72 70 67 67 59 59 56 59 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 17 16 14 13 12 9 7 4 5 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 71 82 90 87 98 105 109 88 72 48 39 12 -13 50 97 78 200 MB DIV 19 63 102 97 94 137 81 71 32 -3 0 12 20 94 97 124 36 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 5 6 40 45 -40 LAND (KM) 127 57 8 -9 -3 -23 -34 -21 -16 53 -16 -129 -8 277 256 -75 151 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.7 16.3 17.5 19.2 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.2 83.1 83.9 84.3 84.8 85.3 85.3 85.5 86.2 87.2 88.4 89.3 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 3 2 0 2 5 7 9 10 13 18 20 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 38 39 39 37 36 37 39 43 35 4 6 12 3 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 36. 38. 41. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 5. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -20. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 32. 36. 34. 34. 35. 39. 44. 40. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 82.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.88 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 28.7% 12.4% 8.0% 5.0% 13.1% 29.6% 59.5% Logistic: 9.9% 35.8% 14.7% 2.4% 1.3% 15.0% 47.5% 72.9% Bayesian: 5.9% 27.3% 8.9% 0.7% 0.4% 24.3% 70.7% 82.6% Consensus: 6.2% 30.6% 12.0% 3.7% 2.2% 17.4% 49.3% 71.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 16.3% 6.5% 1.8% 1.1% 8.7% 24.6% 35.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 33 34 31 29 28 27 29 26 26 27 34 30 25 26 18HR AGO 30 29 32 29 30 27 25 24 23 25 22 22 23 30 26 21 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 24 21 19 18 17 19 16 16 17 24 20 15 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT