* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192024 11/14/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 47 56 63 68 72 73 73 73 74 79 80 77 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 47 56 63 42 34 36 36 31 28 35 36 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 39 32 35 40 36 30 35 41 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 6 6 9 4 8 11 9 9 7 3 3 20 40 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 3 4 6 19 18 10 SHEAR DIR 273 339 2 330 358 27 298 348 5 44 51 63 302 279 205 210 234 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.8 28.7 27.8 27.9 25.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 158 155 154 154 154 153 155 158 157 166 148 136 139 116 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 6 7 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 73 77 78 79 78 77 72 67 61 62 58 57 56 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 8 11 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 74 87 93 89 101 112 112 82 70 40 48 7 -12 -15 -78 200 MB DIV 39 19 55 89 87 105 102 76 62 27 0 14 19 53 109 59 19 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 10 5 27 40 41 LAND (KM) 230 138 70 37 26 20 0 -23 -21 28 78 -54 -82 139 438 46 232 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 16.1 16.8 18.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.3 83.3 84.0 84.6 85.2 85.4 85.3 85.5 86.3 87.5 88.8 89.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 3 6 8 10 12 15 20 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 43 41 40 40 39 37 37 41 44 28 4 7 22 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 36. 39. 41. 41. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -15. -12. -8. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 17. 26. 33. 38. 42. 43. 43. 43. 44. 49. 50. 47. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 81.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 20.0% 11.6% 7.6% 4.8% 12.4% 26.0% 57.4% Logistic: 6.2% 30.8% 12.7% 2.6% 1.4% 11.9% 37.5% 71.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 18.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.5% 12.6% 31.9% 64.6% Consensus: 3.8% 23.0% 9.4% 3.5% 2.2% 12.3% 31.8% 64.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 14.5% 5.7% 2.2% 1.1% 6.6% 16.4% 32.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 47 56 63 42 34 36 36 31 28 35 36 33 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 44 53 60 39 31 33 33 28 25 32 33 30 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 37 46 53 32 24 26 26 21 18 25 26 23 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 36 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT