* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192024 11/14/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 46 60 70 77 78 77 75 74 72 73 79 81 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 46 60 70 77 67 66 64 63 41 37 42 45 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 55 59 66 70 46 39 47 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 4 5 9 7 7 8 9 9 6 4 6 10 30 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 4 5 0 8 18 16 SHEAR DIR 224 275 329 331 331 21 59 349 30 22 74 54 26 312 225 209 202 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.1 28.1 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 161 153 153 151 152 152 155 159 161 159 139 140 131 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 6 5 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 75 78 79 77 71 68 63 65 65 62 61 61 52 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 9 8 13 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 54 71 69 74 84 88 86 101 122 110 113 74 47 17 30 88 87 200 MB DIV 59 42 22 51 85 102 127 94 93 71 48 6 0 11 90 88 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 6 10 7 -1 2 -54 LAND (KM) 278 269 165 115 72 42 36 18 -3 15 43 71 -133 31 293 371 -4 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.4 17.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.9 82.1 83.0 83.8 84.7 84.9 84.8 84.8 85.1 85.9 87.5 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 8 6 3 0 1 1 3 7 11 12 13 14 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 60 53 48 45 43 42 41 40 39 40 42 45 3 6 13 14 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 33. 38. 42. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -9. -11. -5. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 35. 45. 52. 53. 52. 50. 49. 47. 48. 54. 56. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 79.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 35.0% 18.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 46.5% 26.8% 13.3% 8.6% 32.5% 45.9% 77.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 22.3% 4.5% 1.6% 0.7% 8.4% 16.3% 58.2% Consensus: 5.3% 34.6% 16.7% 8.1% 3.1% 13.6% 27.7% 45.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 21.3% 9.3% 4.5% 2.0% 9.3% 14.8% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 NINETEEN 11/14/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 39 46 60 70 77 67 66 64 63 41 37 42 45 36 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 42 56 66 73 63 62 60 59 37 33 38 41 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 48 58 65 55 54 52 51 29 25 30 33 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 36 46 53 43 42 40 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT