* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192024 11/13/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 60 73 83 87 82 80 78 76 75 75 80 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 60 73 83 87 82 80 78 76 62 49 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 43 53 63 73 80 85 88 89 76 56 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 6 3 3 7 7 3 5 3 4 2 5 8 10 10 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 1 -2 -8 -6 -3 1 0 1 4 2 7 9 13 SHEAR DIR 253 237 268 289 322 5 7 68 53 14 47 28 15 342 288 258 190 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 27.7 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 165 166 159 152 152 153 153 152 154 158 160 157 133 139 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 72 75 78 77 76 72 70 70 67 70 66 63 59 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 18 21 22 21 17 15 13 10 8 8 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 55 73 73 83 88 87 101 96 98 94 107 53 25 15 41 90 200 MB DIV 60 67 68 35 58 110 126 106 101 90 78 53 20 24 26 147 164 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 9 4 2 -48 LAND (KM) 199 278 254 161 94 57 51 29 32 23 10 54 126 -15 37 200 199 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 12 11 7 3 2 2 2 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 67 60 53 49 44 43 42 41 41 40 40 43 47 36 5 23 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 38. 42. 45. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 12. 6. 2. -1. -6. -9. -10. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 35. 48. 58. 62. 57. 55. 53. 51. 50. 50. 55. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 78.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 NINETEEN 11/13/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 35.1% 18.9% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 33.5% 16.5% 5.2% 2.2% 18.4% 45.2% 80.4% Bayesian: 2.8% 33.2% 10.0% 2.9% 1.2% 20.1% 39.9% 79.3% Consensus: 5.4% 33.9% 15.1% 5.7% 1.1% 12.8% 36.7% 53.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 10.0% 10.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.2% 20.9% 8.5% 3.3% 1.0% 11.4% 23.3% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 NINETEEN 11/13/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 NINETEEN 11/13/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 40 46 60 73 83 87 82 80 78 76 62 49 54 52 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 41 55 68 78 82 77 75 73 71 57 44 49 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 33 47 60 70 74 69 67 65 63 49 36 41 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 35 48 58 62 57 55 53 51 37 24 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT