* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 11/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 46 62 78 93 99 106 108 109 104 99 101 107 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 46 45 36 31 29 28 28 32 26 20 27 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 31 29 28 27 27 27 33 35 37 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 7 2 4 5 5 7 6 5 6 10 4 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 3 -1 -1 -2 -2 5 0 -2 3 0 3 11 SHEAR DIR 307 260 239 266 284 86 87 84 58 33 42 54 7 350 283 237 197 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.2 27.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 167 166 156 152 152 154 154 155 157 156 162 156 133 158 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 69 71 74 80 79 81 72 62 62 61 66 67 61 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 17 21 26 32 33 35 34 33 27 24 25 30 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 58 72 73 85 94 101 107 115 110 105 92 66 37 45 60 200 MB DIV 49 52 54 56 42 91 103 124 53 38 57 21 21 3 -17 46 96 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 6 13 0 -21 LAND (KM) 189 214 269 262 142 31 -11 -22 -5 -3 -7 -5 40 169 -22 22 178 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 9 5 2 1 1 2 1 3 7 14 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 72 66 60 53 47 41 38 25 25 27 29 31 41 52 30 5 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. 50. 51. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 28. 30. 34. 31. 28. 18. 12. 12. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 26. 42. 58. 73. 79. 86. 88. 89. 84. 79. 81. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.1 77.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.97 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 40.1% 22.9% 8.5% 4.0% 23.4% 42.3% 75.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 12.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 3.4% 23.5% 81.4% Consensus: 3.1% 17.4% 8.5% 3.0% 1.4% 8.9% 21.9% 52.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.5% 10.2% 4.7% 1.5% .7% 5.4% 11.4% 28.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 11/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 33 46 45 36 31 29 28 28 32 26 20 27 34 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 30 43 42 33 28 26 25 25 29 23 17 24 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 24 37 36 27 22 20 19 19 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT