* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 11/13/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 38 51 66 82 94 103 111 111 115 113 109 109 107 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 38 51 66 82 94 103 111 111 115 113 103 102 100 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 25 27 34 42 53 65 79 92 96 95 92 83 79 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 9 5 2 1 2 4 7 3 5 8 4 8 12 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 3 5 0 -2 -3 5 -3 0 1 -1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 48 53 184 214 235 164 315 158 124 67 109 10 342 321 283 246 189 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.3 27.7 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 163 164 166 164 155 155 162 162 161 164 165 160 135 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 69 71 74 78 77 73 68 63 58 55 52 47 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 13 14 18 24 28 32 34 39 36 37 34 31 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 48 64 75 77 96 91 86 68 79 89 84 55 24 0 66 200 MB DIV 52 63 75 75 73 73 126 130 76 30 44 48 21 50 54 24 69 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 2 1 0 2 2 1 -1 -6 0 19 9 -10 LAND (KM) 162 178 217 288 283 134 70 45 52 164 262 259 241 246 31 288 370 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.2 15.0 15.2 15.9 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 78.0 78.8 79.7 80.7 82.4 83.3 83.4 82.7 81.6 80.7 80.9 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 10 6 2 2 5 5 3 6 14 18 16 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 71 68 65 60 54 47 43 42 42 46 51 53 54 74 6 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. 51. 52. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 39. 34. 34. 27. 22. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 31. 46. 62. 74. 83. 91. 91. 95. 93. 89. 89. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.3 77.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.93 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 20.6% 8.5% 3.5% 1.4% 13.5% 37.7% 70.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 11.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 3.2% 6.4% 25.0% Consensus: 1.9% 10.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 5.6% 14.7% 32.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 11.0% 59.0% SDCON: 1.4% 8.3% 2.4% 1.2% .3% 4.8% 12.8% 45.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 11/13/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 27 32 38 51 66 82 94 103 111 111 115 113 103 102 100 18HR AGO 20 19 23 28 34 47 62 78 90 99 107 107 111 109 99 98 96 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 27 40 55 71 83 92 100 100 104 102 92 91 89 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT