* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 11/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 46 60 78 92 101 112 117 119 117 116 114 113 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 46 60 78 92 101 112 117 119 117 116 114 113 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 39 49 61 74 88 94 93 87 82 79 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 5 8 3 5 5 5 7 8 2 5 8 3 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 7 2 2 4 0 13 SHEAR DIR 64 349 69 188 208 237 163 116 75 84 130 204 257 347 284 271 245 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.2 29.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 163 164 167 159 157 160 161 159 162 164 158 162 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 67 68 72 78 78 78 73 67 63 52 48 41 39 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 26 30 34 40 43 43 40 38 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 49 50 60 75 90 91 87 70 75 90 83 59 41 -7 1 200 MB DIV 57 54 66 80 81 50 97 117 164 73 27 40 -2 -14 36 31 19 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 -3 -2 23 27 LAND (KM) 113 104 132 180 250 204 89 19 58 215 369 256 162 318 67 256 271 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.4 14.9 14.5 14.9 15.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.2 77.9 78.8 79.7 81.7 82.9 83.3 82.6 81.2 79.7 78.8 79.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 9 10 8 4 3 6 8 7 6 10 18 19 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 67 64 60 51 45 37 41 45 57 67 63 73 74 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 42. 47. 51. 52. 54. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 21. 27. 34. 42. 45. 44. 36. 33. 29. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 40. 58. 72. 81. 92. 97. 99. 97. 96. 94. 93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.8 76.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 18.0% 7.8% 4.4% 1.7% 15.2% 36.2% 69.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 9.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2.1% 3.1% 34.9% Consensus: 2.0% 9.2% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 5.8% 13.1% 34.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 11/13/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 11/13/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 30 35 46 60 78 92 101 112 117 119 117 116 114 113 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 32 43 57 75 89 98 109 114 116 114 113 111 110 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 26 37 51 69 83 92 103 108 110 108 107 105 104 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT