* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992024 11/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 29 33 45 57 73 89 102 112 115 121 124 122 121 118 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 29 33 45 57 73 89 102 112 115 121 124 122 121 118 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 48 60 74 88 97 101 100 96 92 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 3 4 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 3 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 2 0 0 1 0 -3 0 -1 5 3 -2 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 46 52 44 54 167 232 175 156 33 74 80 142 92 347 2 285 276 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 161 164 167 162 155 157 160 161 161 163 164 157 159 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 69 71 76 81 79 78 74 68 60 55 47 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 8 9 11 14 17 22 28 33 37 38 40 41 39 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 48 50 53 79 78 98 98 88 75 92 98 71 38 -1 -31 200 MB DIV 53 58 66 62 85 82 58 96 145 84 47 69 104 32 15 29 36 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 -2 13 14 LAND (KM) 108 96 105 133 194 259 120 45 10 81 231 368 226 186 118 147 398 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.7 15.1 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.5 76.9 77.6 78.3 79.2 81.2 82.7 83.4 83.3 82.4 81.0 79.7 79.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 9 9 6 2 4 6 7 6 8 14 19 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 73 72 68 66 63 54 47 43 35 43 48 58 64 68 75 49 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. 51. 52. 55. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 17. 26. 34. 39. 40. 41. 39. 35. 31. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 13. 25. 37. 53. 69. 82. 92. 95. 101. 104. 102. 101. 98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.9 76.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992024 INVEST 11/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.4% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 8.5% 24.9% 63.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 33.8% Consensus: 1.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 3.2% 8.6% 32.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992024 INVEST 11/12/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992024 INVEST 11/12/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 29 33 45 57 73 89 102 112 115 121 124 122 121 118 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 31 43 55 71 87 100 110 113 119 122 120 119 116 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 25 37 49 65 81 94 104 107 113 116 114 113 110 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT