* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 69 60 53 45 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 65 58 50 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 72 63 56 49 37 28 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 38 41 43 50 44 34 26 32 29 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 6 9 6 10 10 7 5 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 252 246 245 245 250 250 232 237 247 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 145 137 134 131 131 133 128 127 124 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.5 -49.5 -49.6 -50.3 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 42 38 28 26 36 45 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 31 29 28 22 17 14 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 86 76 75 64 20 -8 -20 -44 -52 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 48 37 25 12 -2 10 12 42 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -14 -23 -42 -39 -24 -2 2 -2 -12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -62 85 238 393 549 725 917 1114 1242 1406 1431 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 29.3 29.9 30.9 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 79.8 78.3 76.7 75.1 72.3 69.4 66.3 63.4 60.4 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 44 41 31 21 20 20 14 12 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 16 CX,CY: 12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -20. -27. -30. -30. -29. -27. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -21. -28. -36. -41. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -27. -35. -52. -68. -79. -87. -91. -94. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.2 81.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 65 58 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 70 63 55 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 61 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 62 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT