* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 92 81 72 62 39 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 72 63 53 44 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 73 63 58 54 42 32 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 41 42 44 48 44 36 37 37 35 38 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 0 5 9 7 9 7 6 7 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 249 256 252 248 254 252 247 243 246 248 258 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.0 27.6 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 133 141 137 131 131 128 124 124 120 116 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -49.4 -49.6 -49.6 -49.7 -50.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 2 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 46 44 40 30 27 32 40 48 52 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 32 30 30 24 18 15 13 11 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 75 94 88 84 50 8 -16 -36 -53 -51 -43 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 50 38 22 24 -3 1 4 29 38 17 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 11 0 -13 -32 -16 -20 -8 -10 -7 -6 0 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 18 -84 26 175 324 582 757 923 1069 1295 1439 1472 1426 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.5 32.4 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 81.6 80.4 78.9 77.4 74.4 71.7 68.8 66.2 63.0 59.5 56.4 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 15 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 11 24 46 36 19 19 16 11 9 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -15. -24. -33. -41. -47. -52. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -15. -23. -30. -42. -47. -45. -42. -37. -31. -27. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -20. -27. -33. -39. -43. -45. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -24. -33. -43. -66. -89. -103. -111. -117. -118. -118. -118. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.2 82.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 56.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 557.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 72 63 53 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 95 85 76 53 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 105 102 101 91 82 59 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 86 63 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 63 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT