* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 104 93 82 73 50 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 104 79 58 55 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 103 79 58 56 47 38 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 31 36 37 38 48 43 44 36 37 36 40 39 40 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 6 -2 4 11 9 7 6 5 9 6 7 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 233 250 256 257 254 250 253 244 250 248 249 249 262 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.1 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 128 126 145 137 132 130 126 124 120 116 111 108 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.2 -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 -49.9 -50.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.7 -53.7 -54.5 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 3 1 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 45 45 42 39 32 29 39 47 51 49 48 50 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 32 30 26 22 17 14 10 9 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 94 72 94 93 73 38 -2 -17 -35 -39 -56 -57 -65 -61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 57 39 32 26 21 16 -2 11 32 30 22 18 1 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 11 0 -5 -7 -36 -11 -7 -22 -22 -15 6 18 33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 58 -23 -42 75 381 633 796 970 1195 1367 1407 1438 1417 1385 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.0 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.4 31.2 31.9 32.6 33.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 83.0 82.2 81.0 79.9 76.8 73.6 70.5 67.4 64.0 60.5 57.4 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 11 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 19 18 43 34 20 17 11 9 6 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -18. -28. -39. -49. -56. -62. -68. -74. -80. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -14. -21. -29. -42. -47. -46. -43. -36. -30. -25. -20. -13. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -26. -32. -40. -45. -48. -48. -46. -45. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -33. -42. -65. -85. -105. -115. -123. -124. -126. -127. -125. -122. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.3 83.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 673.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 104 79 58 55 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 89 68 65 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 90 87 64 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 79 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 73 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IN 6HR 115 104 95 89 86 73 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT