* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 118 105 93 69 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 128 118 88 63 45 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 127 117 89 63 56 47 38 30 25 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 34 34 35 41 43 37 40 34 27 26 29 39 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 5 -1 10 8 11 7 2 9 7 4 7 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 218 226 243 251 249 255 251 258 260 265 239 250 253 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.0 28.1 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 138 128 125 140 134 133 126 123 120 117 115 113 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.5 -49.9 -50.0 -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 3 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 46 43 44 41 43 48 54 59 53 53 50 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 33 32 28 24 20 16 13 11 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 107 97 65 93 80 49 20 -4 -31 -31 -36 -42 -50 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 71 51 29 29 28 27 7 14 13 30 12 17 9 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 10 1 -14 -22 -38 -1 -11 -16 -34 -5 0 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 182 45 -44 -69 222 579 802 1023 1272 1399 1469 1552 1532 1481 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.7 29.2 29.4 30.4 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 83.8 82.9 82.1 81.3 78.4 74.3 70.8 66.7 63.1 60.1 57.1 54.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 11 16 17 17 17 15 13 13 12 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 26 26 19 16 44 20 19 11 9 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -39. -53. -67. -77. -84. -90. -98. -105. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -14. -22. -31. -43. -50. -47. -43. -35. -26. -19. -12. -3. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -0. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -42. -41. -42. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -30. -42. -66. -89. -107. -122. -131. -136. -138. -138. -136. -134. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 25.0 84.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 846.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -12.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/09/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 32( 65) 0( 65) 0( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 128 118 88 63 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 124 94 69 51 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 101 76 58 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 100 82 59 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 98 75 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 IN 6HR 135 128 119 113 110 97 74 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 IN 12HR 135 128 118 109 103 99 76 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54