* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/09/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 135 130 121 109 82 58 40 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 135 130 121 97 63 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 133 125 115 102 62 53 44 36 29 25 21 18 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 32 35 36 44 40 38 30 27 19 32 40 60 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 14 8 5 3 13 8 12 7 7 11 5 10 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 234 239 235 246 256 254 255 258 256 262 237 235 247 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 144 143 132 142 138 133 132 127 125 122 118 116 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -49.6 -49.9 -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.9 -53.6 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 45 46 47 46 41 44 56 59 49 45 41 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 36 36 35 29 26 24 21 19 16 15 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 116 123 104 75 95 74 37 3 -4 -28 -29 -39 -45 -62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 37 74 35 11 30 39 32 -6 31 38 12 27 18 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 8 15 -1 3 -28 -6 -6 -26 -26 -33 -25 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 247 259 121 -14 58 339 625 832 1051 1306 1460 1563 1580 1478 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.2 28.6 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 85.1 84.4 83.4 82.4 80.0 77.1 73.6 70.2 66.7 63.0 59.5 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 13 12 12 14 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 53 30 25 24 38 39 20 18 12 10 7 5 4 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -26. -41. -55. -69. -79. -86. -92. -100. -107. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -17. -25. -38. -45. -45. -41. -33. -24. -17. -10. -2. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -7. -11. -17. -21. -27. -30. -36. -37. -39. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -19. -31. -58. -82. -100. -116. -124. -130. -131. -135. -135. -134. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 23.8 85.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 942.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -9.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/09/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 43( 74) 0( 74) 0( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 3( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 135 130 121 97 63 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 140 139 134 125 101 67 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 140 137 136 127 103 69 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 106 72 48 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 87 63 45 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 IN 6HR 140 135 126 120 117 109 85 67 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 IN 12HR 140 135 130 121 115 111 87 69 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48