* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 143 137 129 119 94 72 49 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 145 143 137 129 119 72 50 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 145 143 137 127 115 72 57 48 40 33 26 21 18 17 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 18 18 22 29 32 40 45 42 39 36 28 20 20 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 11 8 2 5 5 11 9 5 6 4 1 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 208 223 229 229 251 251 255 262 263 255 252 226 234 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.4 27.2 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 151 145 143 127 145 136 133 130 125 122 120 117 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 5 2 2 1 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 44 46 46 48 45 44 50 54 54 50 47 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 33 35 35 33 27 23 22 19 17 13 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 85 112 114 98 90 72 54 15 0 -21 -40 -54 -50 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 31 16 66 33 34 10 34 10 3 34 22 8 7 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -2 -1 -2 1 4 -2 -9 -15 -4 -21 -24 -18 -14 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 154 238 251 259 130 -92 144 436 639 800 1025 1331 1488 1594 1629 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.5 26.4 27.6 28.3 28.7 29.2 30.0 31.0 31.6 31.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 86.1 85.3 84.4 83.5 81.5 79.1 76.1 73.4 70.1 66.2 61.9 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 17 18 18 16 12 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 66 58 30 25 12 52 34 21 15 10 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -43. -58. -73. -84. -91. -97. -105. -113. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -22. -34. -41. -43. -40. -34. -25. -19. -10. -0. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 3. -3. -9. -12. -17. -22. -28. -34. -35. -35. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -16. -26. -51. -73. -96. -111. -123. -131. -137. -138. -134. -131. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 23.0 86.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 960.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 49( 83) 33( 88) 0( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 29 4( 32) 0( 32) 0( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 143 137 129 119 72 50 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 145 144 138 130 120 73 51 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 145 142 141 133 123 76 54 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 125 78 56 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 145 136 130 127 126 79 57 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 145 143 134 128 125 91 69 47 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 IN 12HR 145 143 137 128 122 118 96 74 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46