* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/08/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 136 130 125 119 98 79 57 38 25 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 136 130 125 119 98 62 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 135 130 124 117 99 63 53 43 35 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 19 22 33 34 48 47 47 31 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 7 8 3 7 7 7 6 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 205 219 229 224 247 252 246 246 259 254 254 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 149 152 151 144 139 140 137 133 131 127 126 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 7 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 45 45 44 43 44 46 45 46 50 55 51 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 30 32 35 34 32 27 24 22 23 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 98 93 111 117 78 90 59 35 12 -5 -24 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 22 22 10 59 42 41 29 29 5 30 24 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -4 0 -3 14 1 -11 -30 -2 -5 -12 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 98 176 263 278 278 36 49 389 669 843 1082 1334 1435 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.8 25.6 27.0 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.8 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.3 86.4 85.5 84.7 82.8 80.1 76.7 73.2 69.7 66.2 62.6 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 15 16 15 15 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 34 61 57 32 27 35 35 20 17 13 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -24. -39. -53. -67. -76. -83. -89. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -17. -29. -35. -37. -37. -33. -25. -19. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 1. -5. -10. -15. -15. -24. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -21. -42. -61. -83. -102. -115. -117. -123. -127. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 22.5 88.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 913.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% .2% .2% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/08/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 43( 74) 33( 82) 21( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 10( 35) 0( 35) 0( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 136 130 125 119 98 62 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 140 139 133 128 122 101 65 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 140 137 136 131 125 104 68 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 124 103 67 44 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 100 64 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 136 127 121 118 106 70 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 136 130 121 115 111 75 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS