* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/08/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 120 117 114 101 81 59 40 27 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 124 120 117 114 101 66 47 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 121 115 112 110 100 67 53 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 22 23 34 38 48 58 57 47 41 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 6 3 6 2 6 2 6 13 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 191 207 218 230 230 254 242 248 251 256 245 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.3 26.9 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 149 152 151 141 124 139 131 128 127 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 6 5 2 1 1 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 44 43 43 45 44 44 39 37 42 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 30 33 37 35 29 25 22 20 18 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 91 97 101 114 100 88 76 61 27 10 -1 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 25 10 17 17 35 51 44 34 18 30 21 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -13 -1 0 1 9 -12 -24 -39 -15 -13 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 154 209 290 303 139 -59 217 504 642 868 1065 1251 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.3 25.1 26.9 28.2 29.3 30.0 30.4 30.5 31.0 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 88.0 87.2 86.3 85.4 83.9 81.9 78.6 75.3 72.0 68.7 65.7 62.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 13 15 15 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 27 39 65 50 23 5 43 19 16 13 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -20. -32. -45. -57. -66. -72. -78. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -15. -24. -32. -34. -37. -35. -30. -25. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 4. -3. -9. -15. -20. -23. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -16. -29. -49. -71. -90. -103. -109. -111. -120. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 22.5 88.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 843.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/08/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 33( 62) 30( 73) 23( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 1( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 124 120 117 114 101 66 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 125 122 119 106 71 52 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 123 120 107 72 53 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 104 69 50 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 130 121 115 112 111 98 63 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 130 124 115 109 106 97 62 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 130 124 120 111 105 101 66 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS