* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 129 125 119 116 106 90 71 50 34 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 129 125 119 116 106 75 55 35 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 126 119 114 111 106 78 60 48 37 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 15 19 21 26 39 40 54 51 55 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 4 6 5 7 5 3 6 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 224 194 192 210 224 237 242 239 245 257 261 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.5 26.8 28.3 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 147 152 152 145 123 143 131 128 125 124 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 7 3 2 1 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 50 47 47 47 48 51 45 41 48 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 27 30 35 36 33 28 24 19 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 79 92 96 99 106 56 69 51 31 -5 -27 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 15 18 15 17 68 62 70 36 50 2 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -16 -17 -3 -1 8 -2 -45 -47 -19 -13 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 118 180 250 243 184 -53 168 491 665 964 1211 1341 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.4 26.2 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.5 30.6 30.9 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.3 88.4 87.5 86.5 85.5 84.0 82.1 79.1 75.6 71.5 67.3 64.0 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 15 17 18 16 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 24 32 57 65 26 9 47 21 15 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -3. -5. -11. -22. -35. -48. -61. -71. -77. -83. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -11. -15. -23. -30. -32. -34. -32. -27. -23. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 2. 6. 9. 5. -2. -9. -17. -21. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -16. -19. -29. -45. -64. -85. -101. -111. -116. -122. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 22.1 89.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 790.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% .1% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 38( 68) 31( 78) 27( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 129 125 119 116 106 75 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 130 124 121 111 80 60 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 125 122 112 81 61 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 122 112 81 61 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 106 75 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 129 120 114 111 105 74 54 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 129 125 116 110 106 75 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS