* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 150 144 136 126 114 103 86 66 45 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 150 150 144 136 126 114 103 60 45 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 150 148 138 128 122 115 106 62 56 43 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 14 17 22 35 41 52 54 61 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 3 5 1 5 1 4 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 201 180 186 192 224 228 242 235 239 239 244 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.2 26.6 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 145 152 148 140 122 136 130 126 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 1 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 51 46 47 47 48 50 46 43 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 26 31 36 36 32 27 22 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 83 92 99 100 91 72 61 41 4 -9 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 19 2 18 10 29 44 55 44 54 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -9 -14 -15 0 1 10 -33 -57 -57 -28 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 80 70 65 133 207 278 76 -60 359 600 824 1039 1212 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.8 23.4 25.2 27.1 28.7 29.7 30.3 30.7 30.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.4 89.3 88.2 87.3 86.5 84.6 83.3 81.4 77.2 72.9 69.1 66.1 63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 15 19 17 15 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 19 29 52 37 24 14 33 17 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -16. -28. -45. -60. -76. -87. -94. -101. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -27. -31. -32. -30. -26. -22. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -1. -0. -2. -2. -7. -7. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 11. 12. 7. -1. -9. -17. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -6. -14. -24. -36. -47. -64. -84. -105. -125. -135. -138. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 21.8 90.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 829.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -17.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 11.5% 10.8% 8.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 3.8% 3.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 67( 93) 40( 96) 30( 97) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 6( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 150 144 136 126 114 103 60 45 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 150 149 143 135 125 113 102 59 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 150 147 146 138 128 116 105 62 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 130 118 107 64 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 150 141 135 132 131 119 108 65 50 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 150 141 135 132 125 114 71 56 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 150 144 135 129 125 114 71 56 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS