* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 159 156 149 139 121 113 101 84 67 43 30 34 38 39 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 150 159 156 149 139 121 113 72 58 42 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 150 161 160 151 142 130 124 79 67 54 40 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 10 16 24 31 42 46 55 59 58 54 49 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 3 2 3 8 5 2 6 6 7 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 204 209 210 191 212 218 228 231 235 236 238 236 242 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.3 28.4 29.1 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 172 172 172 173 144 156 135 135 128 130 144 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 53 50 43 46 49 55 50 47 44 41 38 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 26 27 28 29 34 35 32 30 26 21 18 13 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 85 83 91 108 98 57 62 53 29 6 -6 -20 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 33 9 -1 1 29 77 84 113 51 44 32 18 13 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -15 -9 -12 -15 -2 2 15 -10 -43 -78 -42 -19 -30 -43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 125 72 50 89 153 267 126 -78 274 542 818 1015 1049 1273 1487 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.8 21.8 22.4 23.0 24.6 26.8 28.7 29.8 30.6 31.2 31.3 31.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.3 90.3 89.4 88.3 87.2 85.6 83.7 81.6 78.2 73.5 68.7 66.1 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 11 13 14 14 18 21 16 6 6 15 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 25 19 21 33 63 24 10 39 16 11 10 11 10 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. -1. -6. -16. -31. -44. -59. -70. -78. -86. -93. -100. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -21. -27. -31. -31. -29. -25. -22. -15. -4. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 11. 9. 4. -1. -4. -3. 0. -3. -4. -13. -15. -8. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 10. 13. 10. 6. -1. -9. -14. -21. -27. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 6. -1. -11. -29. -37. -49. -66. -83. -107. -120. -116. -112. -111. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 21.7 91.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 60.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.3% 30.5% 31.9% 18.8% 3.6% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.4% 10.2% 10.6% 6.3% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 24.7% 6.1% 6.8% 3.6% .6% .8% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 77( 95) 51( 98) 34( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 2( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 159 156 149 139 121 113 72 58 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 150 149 146 139 129 111 103 62 48 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 150 147 146 139 129 111 103 62 48 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 130 112 104 63 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 150 141 135 132 131 113 105 64 50 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 159 150 144 141 132 124 83 69 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 159 156 147 141 137 129 88 74 58 34 16 16 16 16 16 16