* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 130 131 130 127 117 112 107 98 85 64 52 45 40 39 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 130 131 130 127 117 112 107 70 57 36 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 133 139 137 133 123 118 111 71 59 46 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 19 27 34 35 50 57 68 66 60 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 9 5 4 3 6 2 6 8 6 -3 -7 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 175 166 186 167 194 215 217 230 233 228 225 230 228 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.7 30.2 30.3 29.7 28.7 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 172 172 173 165 149 136 138 131 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 57 56 47 46 50 53 48 40 33 34 32 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 27 28 29 34 36 36 33 28 25 20 13 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 80 86 91 101 101 85 86 75 84 45 40 -10 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 26 35 15 -14 9 46 80 97 68 51 25 4 21 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -16 -19 -13 -11 -13 1 4 -8 -34 -43 -58 -50 -59 -46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 211 116 56 61 65 253 261 13 74 390 581 742 956 1231 1428 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.7 22.0 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.3 28.9 29.8 30.2 30.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.2 91.2 90.1 89.1 88.1 86.4 84.5 82.7 80.0 76.9 73.5 70.0 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 33 22 20 19 60 31 27 40 31 18 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -6. -14. -23. -31. -38. -43. -49. -55. -60. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -19. -17. -12. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -7. -8. -4. -0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 14. 10. 2. -2. -11. -21. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 11. 10. 7. -3. -8. -13. -22. -35. -56. -68. -75. -80. -81. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 21.8 92.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 553.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.35 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.5% 21.8% 14.5% 10.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 39.6% 33.0% 32.9% 27.3% 7.5% 13.0% 2.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.7% 18.3% 15.8% 12.7% 4.8% 4.3% 0.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 63.0% 45.0% 45.0% 24.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 44.3% 31.6% 30.4% 18.3% 3.4% 5.1% .8% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 45( 63) 41( 78) 32( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 2( 23) 6( 27) 5( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 130 131 130 127 117 112 107 70 57 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 120 119 116 106 101 96 59 46 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 112 102 97 92 55 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 97 92 87 50 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 91 86 81 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 130 121 115 112 106 101 96 59 46 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 130 131 122 116 112 107 102 65 52 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS