* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 106 109 108 104 106 98 88 71 57 45 35 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 106 109 108 104 106 65 58 41 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 98 105 110 112 111 110 108 68 61 49 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 12 11 10 15 26 26 37 39 57 66 72 59 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 6 9 3 5 7 4 3 5 10 1 -2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 198 185 182 203 186 213 213 226 235 229 227 230 230 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.5 30.3 30.3 28.6 29.3 28.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 146 158 145 133 133 128 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.7 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 57 54 48 44 47 52 53 41 34 29 25 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 25 26 27 29 29 36 36 34 29 26 23 16 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 74 70 64 72 100 118 101 69 79 91 65 43 7 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 20 25 27 9 5 31 67 84 86 38 29 -4 -14 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -16 -19 -12 -15 -1 2 14 -10 -28 -45 -36 -31 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 220 158 127 117 200 295 136 -52 213 482 582 737 869 967 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.2 29.2 29.8 30.5 31.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.9 92.0 91.2 90.3 89.5 87.4 85.6 83.7 81.2 78.6 75.9 72.9 69.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 12 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 41 37 31 26 35 57 25 18 44 24 16 11 9 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 17. 18. 15. 9. 3. -3. -12. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 19. 14. 16. 8. -2. -19. -33. -45. -55. -63. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 22.2 92.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.46 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 27.7% 21.3% 16.0% 8.1% 12.3% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 15.4% 13.7% 12.3% 7.8% 2.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 33.9% 5.7% 10.8% 17.1% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.1% 15.7% 14.8% 13.6% 4.2% 5.9% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 83.0% 98.0% 98.0% 88.0% 83.0% 98.0% 56.0% 0.0% SDCON: 53.0% 56.8% 56.4% 50.8% 43.6% 51.9% 30.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/07/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 24( 33) 28( 52) 28( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 97 102 106 109 108 104 106 65 58 41 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 94 98 101 100 96 98 57 50 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 93 92 88 90 49 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 83 82 78 80 39 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 70 66 68 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 97 88 82 79 77 73 75 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 97 102 93 87 83 79 81 40 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS