* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 89 95 98 102 100 99 98 87 73 60 50 44 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 82 89 95 98 102 100 99 74 58 43 30 20 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 84 91 96 101 106 108 107 81 63 52 41 33 26 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 12 12 14 23 30 36 40 57 52 54 42 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 6 5 6 -2 8 7 6 11 9 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 221 223 210 210 184 182 204 216 226 230 246 250 250 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.2 29.6 29.6 28.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 171 172 172 172 163 164 144 131 131 127 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 2 2 2 1 1 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 60 58 54 48 48 53 60 57 52 51 55 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 23 23 26 28 32 36 36 34 32 31 31 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 64 69 61 56 80 109 88 76 74 49 31 18 19 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 3 10 20 21 11 24 38 93 76 74 90 65 86 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -10 -13 -17 -18 -21 -2 -6 -8 -37 -39 -11 29 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 274 201 162 137 178 277 187 -50 177 447 618 952 1076 1016 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.5 23.2 24.5 26.3 28.0 29.4 30.5 31.3 31.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.4 92.5 91.6 90.8 90.0 87.8 85.9 84.1 81.9 79.1 75.5 71.3 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 9 11 11 13 13 15 17 19 13 3 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 44 41 37 30 30 66 26 8 47 20 13 9 10 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 21. 18. 14. 11. 10. 7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 12. 7. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 23. 27. 25. 24. 23. 12. -2. -15. -25. -31. -34. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.5 93.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 40.8% 31.0% 23.7% 16.9% 15.4% 12.8% 13.0% Logistic: 18.0% 28.8% 24.2% 18.3% 6.7% 13.8% 5.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 20.7% 13.7% 10.2% 16.5% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 20.0% 27.8% 21.8% 19.5% 9.3% 10.0% 6.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/07/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 21( 33) 24( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 89 95 98 102 100 99 74 58 43 30 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 90 94 92 91 66 50 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 80 84 82 81 56 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 72 70 69 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 89 80 74 70 68 67 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS