* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 103 89 70 48 32 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 91 64 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 81 90 98 104 114 117 117 110 68 55 42 30 22 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 14 14 13 14 12 31 35 42 44 57 69 67 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 6 4 6 6 0 2 7 2 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 218 221 220 199 219 214 221 215 223 226 225 227 233 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.2 30.2 29.4 28.8 27.7 27.3 27.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 173 160 150 135 129 130 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 60 53 50 47 51 54 56 44 37 37 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 23 27 30 32 35 35 30 24 19 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 56 68 70 70 69 118 121 102 81 78 56 38 14 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 21 14 14 30 17 39 32 101 88 81 18 19 0 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -9 -11 -15 -13 -11 1 6 -1 -41 -55 -93 -45 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 359 300 223 167 193 310 266 -7 61 365 542 673 879 1097 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.8 29.0 29.6 30.5 31.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.4 92.7 91.7 90.8 88.7 86.8 84.7 82.7 80.2 77.1 73.7 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 16 13 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 43 37 33 57 32 25 34 34 17 11 10 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 20. 13. 3. -5. -12. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 23. 18. 11. 4. -3. -8. -12. -15. -15. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 18. 25. 31. 38. 42. 37. 33. 19. 0. -22. -38. -52. -57. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.5 94.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 18.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.6% 58.3% 45.4% 40.3% 22.7% 32.9% 21.3% 16.5% Logistic: 33.2% 46.0% 45.9% 33.9% 9.6% 15.4% 4.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 30.1% 8.4% 19.2% 31.5% 13.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 37.5% 36.8% 35.3% 15.3% 16.4% 8.7% 5.7% DTOPS: 65.0% 97.0% 92.0% 71.0% 32.0% 100.0% 97.0% 15.0% SDCON: 48.0% 67.2% 64.4% 53.1% 23.6% 58.2% 52.8% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/06/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 11( 15) 23( 34) 28( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 6( 6) 3( 9) 1( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 91 64 45 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 77 84 90 97 101 96 80 53 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 73 79 86 90 85 69 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 66 73 77 72 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 80 88 79 73 69 73 68 52 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS