* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 60 71 76 82 84 76 67 59 41 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 60 71 76 82 84 76 47 43 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 64 72 78 80 75 47 41 29 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 13 16 17 21 17 31 46 51 54 66 66 59 57 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 1 2 -2 0 3 7 3 2 3 5 2 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 225 250 231 228 230 231 245 245 244 242 236 234 231 233 242 246 253 SST (C) 31.3 31.2 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.2 30.3 28.2 29.0 27.6 27.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 170 170 171 172 172 172 141 154 133 125 133 132 131 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.8 -51.8 -52.5 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 68 64 60 56 49 45 47 43 41 31 23 24 28 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 18 23 25 29 33 32 32 31 25 19 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 36 52 61 58 52 112 136 134 97 87 42 23 10 -19 -49 200 MB DIV 29 10 8 18 6 31 40 31 56 59 67 30 19 9 0 -11 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 12 18 4 -17 -27 -29 -11 -18 -10 LAND (KM) 271 322 372 399 350 270 241 333 307 62 -33 300 427 567 721 853 1051 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.3 23.5 24.6 26.2 27.6 28.9 30.2 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 94.6 94.1 93.5 92.9 91.3 89.7 87.5 85.4 83.4 81.2 78.1 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 12 12 12 13 16 14 9 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 49 48 48 45 39 47 34 23 16 40 17 14 13 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -23. -31. -37. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 19. 24. 24. 24. 21. 11. 2. -5. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 31. 36. 42. 44. 36. 27. 19. 1. -16. -29. -36. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.0 95.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.88 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 18.0% 11.6% 8.6% 5.9% 12.4% 12.8% 18.5% Logistic: 6.4% 25.0% 19.6% 11.9% 3.9% 7.2% 2.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 14.7% 10.6% 7.0% 3.3% 6.6% 5.2% 6.4% DTOPS: 14.0% 66.0% 32.0% 11.0% 4.0% 78.0% 84.0% 75.0% SDCON: 8.9% 40.3% 21.3% 9.0% 3.6% 42.3% 44.6% 40.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 55 60 71 76 82 84 76 47 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 55 66 71 77 79 71 42 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 58 63 69 71 63 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 46 51 57 59 51 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT