* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 56 67 76 80 82 82 74 63 52 37 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 56 67 76 80 82 82 56 47 36 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 69 74 78 79 57 48 38 29 23 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 8 13 13 15 20 20 30 41 42 52 46 42 39 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 1 3 2 6 7 5 0 8 3 11 10 4 SHEAR DIR 222 238 252 237 224 237 236 234 230 223 214 226 227 232 230 242 242 SST (C) 31.3 31.3 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.5 30.5 30.1 28.8 29.2 28.2 27.4 28.0 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 170 171 172 172 172 150 157 141 130 136 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 8 6 7 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 70 68 63 58 52 47 52 52 55 54 49 43 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 22 26 29 32 36 35 32 30 25 21 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 27 37 51 60 48 91 133 126 106 98 57 50 24 5 -10 200 MB DIV 32 25 7 20 31 6 45 22 39 53 84 86 53 63 16 8 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -7 -6 -12 -10 -10 1 -4 -19 -48 -26 -50 -38 -57 LAND (KM) 251 286 322 378 406 287 252 321 375 157 -85 234 435 579 757 913 1081 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.9 28.7 30.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.0 94.6 94.1 93.5 92.0 90.3 88.2 86.2 84.1 81.8 78.8 75.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 50 50 49 47 41 43 58 24 6 44 19 16 14 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 31. 30. 24. 19. 11. 5. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 12. 7. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 41. 45. 47. 47. 39. 28. 17. 2. -10. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.9 95.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 26.5% 12.4% 8.8% 5.9% 12.4% 13.3% 20.8% Logistic: 8.7% 34.6% 24.1% 9.7% 3.7% 8.2% 7.2% 3.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 4.8% 21.9% 12.7% 6.5% 3.4% 6.9% 7.0% 8.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 74.0% 43.0% 14.0% 6.0% 80.0% 79.0% 88.0% SDCON: 4.9% 47.9% 27.8% 10.2% 4.7% 43.4% 43.0% 48.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 56 67 76 80 82 82 56 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 51 62 71 75 77 77 51 42 31 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 54 63 67 69 69 43 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 42 51 55 57 57 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT