* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 72 66 56 36 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 65 50 40 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 69 76 80 80 74 50 39 27 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 10 8 16 15 20 19 31 44 54 60 67 58 48 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 0 1 -1 4 5 9 2 4 1 4 5 6 6 SHEAR DIR 225 243 246 244 233 229 243 244 242 241 235 241 230 227 223 231 227 SST (C) 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.7 27.3 27.8 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 169 169 170 171 172 172 170 171 160 149 130 136 133 140 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -49.5 -50.1 -49.8 -50.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 1 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 73 71 67 63 56 52 50 50 44 38 26 27 33 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 15 18 24 26 29 34 34 34 32 25 19 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 56 43 30 31 39 57 62 54 135 133 124 79 96 43 19 5 17 200 MB DIV 48 30 25 8 12 26 31 31 40 56 61 86 18 10 18 33 25 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -1 4 7 -2 -56 -42 -45 -39 -56 LAND (KM) 214 250 271 322 373 343 285 291 409 234 0 78 329 476 766 1035 1278 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 24.1 25.3 26.6 28.1 29.6 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.6 94.1 92.8 91.2 89.2 86.9 84.8 82.8 80.3 77.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 12 11 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 52 51 50 48 46 44 61 28 24 33 34 17 14 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -17. -25. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 16. 22. 29. 28. 28. 23. 12. 3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 38. 41. 43. 45. 37. 31. 21. 1. -14. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.5 95.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 41.2% 25.9% 10.2% 7.0% 15.7% 16.8% 23.3% Logistic: 13.3% 46.9% 34.4% 10.9% 4.7% 13.6% 8.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 7.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% Consensus: 7.1% 32.0% 21.1% 7.5% 4.1% 10.0% 8.8% 9.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 21.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 17.0% 39.0% SDCON: 5.0% 26.5% 14.0% 5.2% 2.5% 6.5% 12.9% 24.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 65 50 40 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 58 68 71 73 75 60 45 35 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 50 60 63 65 67 52 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 39 49 52 54 56 41 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT