* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 37 38 38 36 35 32 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 37 38 38 36 31 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 7 3 5 1 5 14 19 39 49 64 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 7 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 334 348 341 1 34 29 127 209 258 245 230 230 224 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.1 27.5 25.9 24.1 22.3 16.5 19.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 132 134 136 144 140 133 118 106 97 80 85 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 2 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 41 40 40 40 43 50 52 50 50 44 51 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 36 28 17 0 -29 -66 -86 -69 -70 -35 13 74 78 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -15 -24 -31 -22 -14 -3 14 18 8 1 10 30 27 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 3 0 3 1 7 -9 -42 -127 -56 -46 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2208 2197 2183 2162 2145 2146 2061 1832 1692 1755 1686 793 -159 -142 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.0 27.4 29.5 32.0 34.5 36.9 38.6 39.9 41.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.6 43.0 43.7 44.1 43.3 41.0 36.4 28.9 18.6 6.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 5 7 9 11 14 19 26 36 43 47 49 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 19 16 13 18 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 8. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 7. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 42.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.48 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.0% 11.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 6.2% 6.5% 2.6% 0.3% 3.7% 1.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.4% 6.2% 3.7% 0.1% 1.3% 4.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/21/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 37 38 38 36 31 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 31 35 36 36 34 29 28 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 27 28 32 33 33 31 26 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 21 25 26 26 24 19 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT