* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/18/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 32 37 43 45 46 46 46 43 41 38 37 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 32 37 43 45 46 46 46 43 41 38 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 33 34 34 34 34 33 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 8 6 6 11 14 19 14 21 18 22 27 30 31 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 2 0 -1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 5 7 50 24 315 298 286 298 295 293 283 289 291 307 332 360 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.5 26.3 25.3 24.1 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 136 138 137 137 135 134 132 134 137 132 120 111 102 94 94 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 69 71 66 60 54 55 57 58 58 57 55 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 83 81 80 76 66 67 44 30 9 -16 -45 -101 -112 -100 -64 -50 200 MB DIV 20 43 78 76 62 58 15 -4 -20 8 16 29 19 12 -37 -23 -57 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 1 6 20 21 17 12 7 9 4 17 9 32 33 32 LAND (KM) 1444 1491 1537 1611 1697 1916 2139 2317 2345 2232 2048 1801 1603 1574 1786 1359 933 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.3 25.0 26.3 27.2 27.9 29.1 30.9 33.6 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.3 48.0 47.7 47.2 46.6 45.0 43.2 41.7 40.9 40.7 40.8 40.5 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 11 11 9 6 5 7 11 15 18 20 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 21 25 18 15 18 15 20 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 23. 21. 18. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.6 48.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 21.9% 10.3% 4.3% 1.5% 10.2% 7.2% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3.5% 2.4% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/18/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 27 32 37 43 45 46 46 46 43 41 38 37 40 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 30 35 41 43 44 44 44 41 39 36 35 38 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 26 31 37 39 40 40 40 37 35 32 31 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT