* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 42 47 53 57 59 61 62 62 62 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 42 47 53 57 59 61 62 62 62 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 49 56 62 66 68 68 69 70 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 8 8 11 1 1 1 10 17 18 19 15 14 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -1 -7 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 54 72 102 114 110 123 168 60 158 197 238 248 262 264 281 279 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.5 29.1 28.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 145 143 143 144 138 138 139 144 142 142 153 147 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 48 51 56 59 59 65 63 67 68 66 56 50 47 45 42 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -12 -2 0 14 44 62 75 86 79 72 70 55 36 -5 -52 -104 200 MB DIV -1 0 4 2 12 10 24 52 41 22 -17 9 -12 15 8 -3 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 1 2 0 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1406 1364 1322 1298 1275 1284 1307 1376 1484 1598 1705 1816 1943 2040 1999 1860 1777 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.9 25.2 26.3 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.2 48.7 49.0 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.2 48.5 47.9 47.4 46.8 45.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 2 2 4 6 7 8 6 6 6 6 8 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 25 23 22 21 20 22 22 24 23 23 16 14 20 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 26. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 47.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.2% 8.0% 6.2% 4.1% 9.8% 11.4% 22.7% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 4.8% 19.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.1% 6.2% 3.7% 2.4% 1.5% 3.8% 5.4% 14.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% .7% 1.9% 2.7% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/16/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 37 42 47 53 57 59 61 62 62 62 63 65 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 41 46 52 56 58 60 61 61 61 62 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 52 54 56 57 57 57 58 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 30 35 41 45 47 49 50 50 50 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT