* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 36 38 41 45 47 50 53 56 58 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 36 38 41 45 47 50 53 56 58 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 36 37 41 45 48 52 57 62 68 75 81 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 19 15 10 5 12 10 6 4 2 3 1 2 6 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 1 3 3 -1 0 0 -3 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 270 282 304 327 4 30 78 136 134 193 254 249 69 315 335 321 292 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.3 28.9 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 137 139 143 144 146 148 152 153 153 144 140 150 165 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 52 49 53 52 59 59 62 64 69 69 69 67 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -5 -7 -11 -14 -29 5 26 42 50 55 57 46 14 11 33 200 MB DIV -2 -34 -49 -35 5 7 3 14 18 5 35 35 59 13 31 22 42 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 8 LAND (KM) 1978 1891 1804 1724 1643 1512 1361 1264 1219 1162 1132 1157 1240 1344 1471 1676 1882 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.5 21.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.3 44.2 45.0 45.8 47.1 48.7 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.4 51.4 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 35 43 46 43 37 23 21 22 24 25 26 22 19 24 36 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -21. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 22. 23. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.3 42.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.6% 5.3% 4.8% 2.9% 8.1% 8.6% 15.8% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 3.0% 3.7% 6.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.4% .9% .8% .5% 1.5% 1.8% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/14/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 36 38 41 45 47 50 53 56 58 62 63 65 67 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 36 38 41 45 47 50 53 56 58 62 63 65 67 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 37 40 44 46 49 52 55 57 61 62 64 66 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 35 39 41 44 47 50 52 56 57 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT