* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 38 42 45 49 52 54 54 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 38 42 45 49 52 54 54 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 38 38 38 38 40 42 46 50 54 57 60 63 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 15 13 10 8 7 3 2 9 10 12 10 11 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 5 4 4 4 2 3 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 314 302 292 294 288 254 318 217 203 160 178 180 216 201 228 223 260 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 130 132 133 137 142 144 144 144 146 146 146 142 138 139 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 60 56 54 52 50 50 52 53 56 58 61 60 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 17 5 11 23 14 18 2 -4 -14 4 42 72 77 61 48 200 MB DIV 15 25 27 18 42 27 -22 12 6 17 16 10 -5 12 13 13 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 2187 2144 2100 2039 1980 1835 1662 1501 1397 1318 1257 1254 1280 1343 1441 1588 1780 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.4 20.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.2 40.2 41.1 42.1 43.7 45.4 47.0 48.0 48.8 49.6 50.1 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 22 29 40 51 41 32 24 22 21 22 20 17 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. -24. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 21. 22. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 38.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.7% 6.5% 5.1% 2.8% 8.6% 9.7% 18.2% Logistic: 1.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 2.9% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 1.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5% 4.2% 9.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% .5% 1.7% 2.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 36 36 38 42 45 49 52 54 54 56 57 59 60 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 34 36 40 43 47 50 52 52 54 55 57 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 33 37 40 44 47 49 49 51 52 54 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 27 31 34 38 41 43 43 45 46 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT