* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072024 09/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 41 45 48 51 54 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 41 45 48 51 54 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 38 42 47 53 59 64 69 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 9 9 13 11 7 0 3 6 4 7 9 10 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 4 3 2 3 3 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 297 300 313 316 287 284 272 327 278 135 166 186 173 250 233 259 254 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 131 132 134 137 142 144 143 141 144 148 146 140 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 63 62 56 55 54 53 53 55 55 59 61 66 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 21 20 28 24 34 27 22 8 -3 -22 -11 23 48 62 55 200 MB DIV 11 13 26 57 65 42 16 -18 -1 11 12 22 21 10 31 35 35 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 -7 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 2054 2178 2130 2088 2042 1945 1812 1667 1497 1395 1349 1300 1220 1267 1421 1536 1579 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.8 39.0 39.9 40.8 42.5 43.9 45.4 47.1 48.2 48.9 49.6 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 4 4 4 2 6 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 14 17 22 32 43 50 39 28 22 20 22 22 20 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 36.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.0% 8.6% 6.5% 4.1% 9.7% 10.1% 18.1% Logistic: 1.3% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 1.8% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.0% 6.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.5% 3.8% 4.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 3.5% 1.9% 1.2% .7% 1.9% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 SEVEN 09/13/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/13/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 41 45 48 51 54 55 57 59 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 44 47 50 53 54 56 58 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 30 33 36 40 43 46 49 50 52 54 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 36 39 42 43 45 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT