* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072024 09/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 50 55 60 63 65 68 69 70 71 70 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 50 55 60 63 65 68 69 70 71 70 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 49 52 56 58 62 66 70 75 79 84 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 6 9 15 8 9 11 7 3 5 5 10 12 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 -1 -1 -1 2 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 332 299 253 307 294 311 309 284 281 283 271 239 184 215 209 195 197 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 129 129 129 130 134 137 137 139 139 137 141 145 147 143 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 71 68 60 52 45 45 45 48 47 54 54 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 12 12 10 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 53 47 44 43 61 89 76 65 59 50 44 48 70 102 130 200 MB DIV 46 58 76 93 72 53 52 0 15 -32 -6 -45 -20 -2 17 33 43 700-850 TADV -10 -15 -6 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 1300 1469 1637 1786 1936 2168 2039 1903 1757 1629 1535 1450 1352 1300 1276 1260 1240 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.6 31.1 32.7 34.0 35.4 38.0 40.6 43.0 44.6 46.0 47.2 48.3 49.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 15 11 10 23 34 46 40 31 22 21 22 23 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 40. 41. 40. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 29.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 26.2% 13.2% 8.9% 6.0% 12.6% 13.5% 21.6% Logistic: 7.6% 31.9% 20.5% 8.1% 2.8% 10.5% 5.8% 7.8% Bayesian: 2.4% 7.4% 4.4% 0.8% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% Consensus: 4.7% 21.8% 12.7% 5.9% 3.1% 8.4% 6.9% 10.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.3% 13.9% 7.8% 3.9% 1.5% 4.7% 3.9% 5.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 45 50 55 60 63 65 68 69 70 71 70 76 78 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 41 46 51 56 59 61 64 65 66 67 66 72 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 39 44 49 52 54 57 58 59 60 59 65 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 38 41 43 46 47 48 49 48 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT