* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 48 46 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 36 33 30 29 28 29 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 30 29 28 29 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 0 7 8 9 20 45 52 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -3 -4 1 0 7 8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 105 116 137 193 209 221 228 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.3 29.6 17.8 17.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 149 147 143 166 79 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -49.2 -48.7 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 10 8 4 6 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 58 58 57 55 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 18 15 15 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 88 97 72 53 67 93 75 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 24 49 77 64 121 78 58 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 -2 4 9 24 36 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1 -44 -90 -179 -259 -226 -222 -64 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.5 34.0 35.2 36.3 39.6 44.0 47.6 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.7 79.8 79.8 79.8 77.5 73.1 67.4 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 11 15 23 27 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 21 5 3 2 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.9 79.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.9% 8.9% 6.8% 5.2% 11.1% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 3.8% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% .9% 1.9% 1.5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 36 33 30 29 28 29 30 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 38 37 36 37 38 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 36 37 38 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 35 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT