* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 62 65 62 61 51 43 42 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 50 42 36 30 29 29 30 29 29 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 44 37 30 29 30 30 29 29 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 2 6 20 43 55 58 47 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 7 6 -13 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 171 208 258 125 229 213 217 217 234 254 267 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.3 29.6 19.1 12.3 11.5 11.6 7.5 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 140 145 147 143 166 82 71 69 67 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -49.9 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 -48.6 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.1 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.0 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 10 4 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 59 64 60 59 58 44 39 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 19 15 17 12 6 6 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 80 79 85 39 63 88 79 68 74 113 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 31 12 5 21 66 123 109 72 14 15 13 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 8 3 9 15 26 12 -16 -39 -69 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 73 27 -3 -51 -94 -234 -251 -248 -27 -135 -84 184 375 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.8 34.3 36.3 39.8 44.1 48.5 51.5 53.0 53.8 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.2 79.3 79.5 79.6 79.5 77.7 73.4 68.0 62.5 57.3 53.2 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 8 15 23 28 26 20 15 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 15 17 16 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -8. -7. -15. -26. -27. -30. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 12. 11. 1. -7. -8. -9. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.4 79.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 22.7% 13.9% 9.8% 7.1% 18.5% 23.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 12.4% 8.4% 2.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 11.8% 7.5% 4.0% 2.5% 7.0% 8.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 5.9% 3.7% 2.0% 1.2% 3.5% 4.2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 50 42 36 30 29 29 30 29 29 32 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 45 37 31 25 24 24 25 24 24 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 38 32 26 25 25 26 25 25 28 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 34 28 27 27 28 27 27 30 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT