* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 60 58 56 51 41 36 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 47 41 31 28 29 30 30 29 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 48 42 32 28 29 30 32 29 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 8 7 5 4 7 11 29 49 54 56 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 0 1 -3 0 2 5 -3 -1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 141 173 212 278 227 241 211 209 217 239 262 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 30.0 28.5 25.3 15.3 12.7 8.6 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 139 140 145 149 172 149 113 74 69 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -50.6 -49.3 -48.8 -48.6 -49.2 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 7 6 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 56 56 61 67 55 62 54 38 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 21 20 18 18 18 12 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 93 93 77 77 58 42 78 97 72 38 48 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 21 29 15 -11 67 84 123 100 60 13 -8 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 8 3 5 -18 29 -29 -15 -19 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 48 23 -13 -46 -180 -282 -191 -277 47 -78 76 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.5 32.7 33.1 33.5 35.1 37.5 41.5 46.2 49.7 51.9 53.4 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.5 79.5 79.6 79.7 79.9 79.1 76.1 71.5 65.5 59.0 54.7 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 10 18 26 28 25 19 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 16 15 17 21 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. 2. 5. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -19. -27. -33. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 6. 1. -9. -14. -16. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.2 79.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 24.5% 16.3% 12.6% 7.6% 19.6% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.6% 9.2% 3.2% 0.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.5% 8.6% 5.4% 2.8% 7.8% 8.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 6.7% 4.3% 2.7% 1.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 47 41 31 28 29 30 30 29 31 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 44 38 28 25 26 27 27 26 28 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 39 33 23 20 21 22 22 21 23 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 34 24 21 22 23 23 22 24 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT