* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 48 47 47 46 35 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 35 29 28 29 30 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 45 46 35 29 28 29 30 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 6 3 2 4 13 41 53 57 56 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 -2 -6 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 45 134 127 154 52 220 216 221 211 223 245 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.4 29.8 25.5 18.3 15.3 11.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 149 147 150 143 168 113 79 72 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -49.5 -48.0 -47.7 -50.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 10 10 7 10 6 7 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 55 58 62 58 52 49 46 34 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 22 21 18 16 16 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 59 86 93 77 81 42 65 87 111 98 2 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 4 28 37 18 59 67 109 84 76 21 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 2 12 29 19 30 -22 33 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 95 91 84 48 13 -61 -212 -235 -151 -202 -19 -80 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.0 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.9 35.6 38.3 41.6 45.2 48.7 51.0 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.5 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.6 78.3 75.3 71.4 67.1 62.8 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 7 11 17 21 23 20 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 19 18 14 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -13. -21. -27. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. -5. -12. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.8 79.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 21.1% 12.4% 9.6% 7.1% 14.2% 17.4% 20.6% Logistic: 2.2% 11.3% 7.5% 2.0% 0.4% 2.8% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 10.9% 6.7% 3.9% 2.5% 5.7% 6.5% 6.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 6.4% 3.8% 2.4% 1.2% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/07/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 45 47 35 29 28 29 30 30 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 44 32 26 25 26 27 27 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 28 22 21 22 23 23 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT