* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 47 44 42 40 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 42 33 29 28 29 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 44 47 33 29 28 29 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 5 5 6 3 5 3 3 7 5 29 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 2 3 -2 0 0 -2 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 286 286 338 40 117 347 345 328 212 192 194 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.8 30.0 29.9 19.6 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 151 150 151 148 147 153 148 172 171 82 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -50.6 -49.6 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 6 9 7 8 5 5 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 59 59 58 59 64 70 63 53 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 22 22 21 22 21 18 16 16 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 17 21 34 59 84 59 55 36 72 117 106 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 7 9 -10 1 39 9 63 44 113 74 93 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 9 7 5 3 1 0 1 6 -4 -52 -55 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -27 19 53 69 79 64 -3 -90 -178 -210 -104 7 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.5 33.1 34.0 35.2 37.4 40.4 42.9 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 80.7 80.1 79.7 79.3 79.1 79.4 79.8 79.7 78.3 75.5 70.7 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 4 5 9 15 20 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 20 24 21 18 5 4 5 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -15. -17. -13. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 4. 2. 0. 1. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.9 81.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 17.8% 11.9% 9.0% 6.6% 12.7% 13.7% 24.4% Logistic: 2.1% 9.6% 6.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 9.2% 6.1% 3.3% 2.2% 4.9% 5.2% 8.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 44 45 46 42 33 29 28 29 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 43 39 30 26 25 26 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 35 26 22 21 22 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 28 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT