* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 39 40 39 42 45 46 46 41 37 31 29 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 37 38 38 40 43 39 32 28 27 28 30 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 33 36 36 37 40 42 31 28 27 28 32 31 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 7 5 6 7 2 9 10 7 13 23 43 54 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 4 10 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 291 270 259 320 120 218 9 322 5 261 220 206 216 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.2 28.3 30.0 23.4 22.6 17.6 17.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 151 149 150 145 147 153 140 171 96 92 75 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -49.8 -49.8 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 9 7 9 6 8 3 5 1 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 56 56 56 58 58 64 69 73 67 62 62 51 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 24 23 23 24 23 20 17 14 11 13 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -8 27 33 36 78 56 58 22 44 52 77 116 122 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 19 10 16 -5 34 30 47 50 91 61 73 80 106 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 5 2 2 -1 -2 6 -6 -13 -12 -85 30 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -37 -17 1 42 81 88 40 -3 -101 -189 -153 -3 24 103 -9 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7 32.1 32.7 33.3 34.3 35.5 37.1 39.0 41.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.9 81.5 81.1 80.6 80.1 79.3 79.2 79.3 79.7 79.2 77.7 74.9 71.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 6 8 12 17 18 17 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 31 28 20 20 24 18 19 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -21. -27. -24. -23. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -0. -1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 1. -3. -9. -11. -14. -21. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.2 81.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.75 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 14.5% 9.3% 6.9% 5.1% 11.0% 11.6% 20.7% Logistic: 1.0% 3.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 6.1% 3.9% 2.4% 1.7% 3.9% 4.1% 7.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 37 38 38 40 43 39 32 28 27 28 30 28 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 42 44 47 43 36 32 31 32 34 32 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 39 42 38 31 27 26 27 29 27 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 35 31 24 20 19 20 22 20 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT