* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 36 36 37 40 42 45 44 40 37 33 28 20 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 34 35 38 40 43 35 30 28 28 28 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 32 30 33 34 36 37 32 29 27 27 31 29 28 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 16 6 6 6 10 7 6 13 10 21 51 71 84 77 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -5 5 -2 -8 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 261 280 295 249 224 17 148 359 17 342 287 259 222 218 212 224 228 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.7 29.0 24.7 22.6 19.8 17.7 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 160 156 151 152 146 144 146 142 146 153 104 91 80 77 78 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.1 -49.1 -49.4 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 8 8 6 9 6 7 5 5 3 3 1 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 50 54 58 57 58 59 62 68 74 72 66 62 59 50 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 17 16 13 12 11 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -29 -18 24 28 58 93 51 44 26 37 77 88 108 110 57 31 200 MB DIV 103 52 17 14 25 15 35 26 88 53 90 51 69 70 34 40 18 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 5 4 4 0 0 1 0 9 -9 -72 -63 -88 -58 -54 LAND (KM) -83 -39 -23 10 44 108 74 49 -16 -109 -142 -88 48 28 144 -23 37 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.3 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.9 32.5 32.9 33.8 34.8 36.1 37.7 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 81.9 81.4 81.0 80.5 79.3 78.9 78.9 79.0 79.0 78.5 76.8 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 6 9 13 14 13 16 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 4 20 30 27 20 28 22 16 24 5 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 8. 2. -4. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -21. -25. -28. -29. -25. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 5. 4. 0. -3. -7. -12. -20. -25. -28. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.8 82.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.80 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 12.0% 7.1% 5.3% 4.4% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.2% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.0% .7% 1.8% .1% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 34 35 38 40 43 35 30 28 28 28 21 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 38 39 42 44 47 39 34 32 32 32 25 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 44 47 39 34 32 32 32 25 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 36 39 31 26 24 24 24 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT