* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 72 72 72 70 70 69 67 59 49 44 45 41 31 21 V (KT) LAND 65 51 40 35 32 34 32 32 31 29 26 27 27 27 26 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 51 40 34 31 35 39 43 48 51 36 30 28 27 30 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 10 12 19 16 7 5 6 4 9 12 1 14 42 57 68 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -1 -1 5 0 4 4 -3 -3 1 -4 5 5 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 273 247 266 286 225 353 165 360 35 3 337 247 216 220 210 214 SST (C) 31.2 30.9 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.8 26.1 24.8 19.1 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 166 157 156 152 148 147 147 151 151 142 148 116 106 77 75 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -49.5 -49.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 6 5 9 6 9 7 10 6 6 1 3 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 54 55 59 59 60 58 63 68 65 59 50 44 45 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 22 22 22 23 23 24 24 20 17 14 17 17 13 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 21 8 -21 -15 27 52 89 70 62 24 50 81 80 87 63 81 200 MB DIV 67 71 92 61 17 -1 12 40 18 74 92 80 63 73 75 54 52 700-850 TADV 10 8 1 3 3 8 6 2 0 0 -1 4 -16 -29 13 -34 -5 LAND (KM) -20 -79 -102 -51 -20 36 80 69 55 1 -67 -133 -134 -22 135 57 157 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.2 32.3 32.9 34.0 35.0 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.0 82.6 82.1 81.5 80.6 79.8 79.5 79.6 79.6 79.5 79.1 78.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 4 5 6 9 15 16 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 51 6 4 8 31 21 21 21 19 20 11 4 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -13. -20. -24. -20. -19. -24. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. -6. -16. -21. -20. -24. -34. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.9 83.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.44 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.81 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 34.5% 21.8% 15.2% 11.1% 15.8% 12.7% 17.9% Logistic: 11.6% 17.7% 13.9% 8.9% 2.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 7.4% 0.7% 0.8% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 17.6% 12.2% 9.6% 4.4% 7.0% 4.8% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.6% 8.8% 6.1% 4.8% 2.2% 3.5% 2.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 51 40 35 32 34 32 32 31 29 26 27 27 27 26 16 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 53 48 45 47 45 45 44 42 39 40 40 40 39 29 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 55 53 53 52 50 47 48 48 48 47 37 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 54 52 52 51 49 46 47 47 47 46 36 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT