* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 85 84 83 82 81 78 73 65 54 50 47 41 35 31 V (KT) LAND 70 63 50 40 34 30 32 31 28 23 22 25 26 27 29 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 52 41 34 30 37 42 46 49 39 32 28 27 30 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 11 12 19 7 8 8 4 3 13 10 13 24 45 71 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 0 -1 1 1 4 2 2 -4 -4 -4 3 1 -4 -15 SHEAR DIR 277 274 269 254 266 254 266 96 255 337 334 339 308 222 234 221 231 SST (C) 31.6 31.4 31.1 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.3 29.7 25.2 25.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 168 160 158 152 153 149 143 145 148 139 163 107 114 94 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 8 6 9 7 10 6 8 6 8 4 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 52 58 56 58 56 65 68 73 71 64 58 57 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 25 23 22 24 25 25 25 22 19 18 16 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 21 10 -17 26 23 93 73 71 20 45 56 67 10 5 17 200 MB DIV 74 60 62 89 51 24 0 33 11 49 60 41 60 58 34 37 54 700-850 TADV 6 7 5 2 1 8 3 8 -3 -3 1 -1 -1 -25 -25 -35 -16 LAND (KM) 47 -12 -76 -107 -67 -15 88 84 64 22 -24 -73 -162 -111 20 133 133 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.7 31.6 32.0 32.3 32.8 33.4 34.2 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.4 83.1 82.6 82.2 81.3 80.1 79.6 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.4 79.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 7 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 78 53 7 4 6 31 23 24 21 16 21 6 3 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -23. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. 3. -5. -16. -20. -23. -29. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.2 83.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.57 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.49 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 48.7% 35.8% 24.2% 18.5% 23.0% 13.9% 18.7% Logistic: 26.0% 35.4% 29.2% 20.5% 5.2% 8.9% 2.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 19.9% 1.1% 3.0% 17.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.0% 28.4% 22.7% 20.6% 8.1% 10.7% 5.4% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.0% 14.2% 11.3% 10.3% 4.0% 5.3% 2.7% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 63 50 40 34 30 32 31 28 23 22 25 26 27 29 22 19 18HR AGO 70 69 56 46 40 36 38 37 34 29 28 31 32 33 35 28 25 12HR AGO 70 67 66 56 50 46 48 47 44 39 38 41 42 43 45 38 35 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 54 50 52 51 48 43 42 45 46 47 49 42 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT