* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 68 70 70 71 72 72 71 64 56 49 43 36 33 29 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 68 50 34 29 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 68 51 34 29 28 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 16 18 11 22 7 8 7 6 8 11 12 28 25 39 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 0 -5 1 2 4 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 264 266 270 282 269 274 248 252 133 209 31 318 328 305 280 271 242 SST (C) 30.9 31.2 31.5 31.4 31.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.1 29.5 29.1 29.2 23.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 170 169 165 159 152 147 146 137 158 150 153 93 103 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 9 6 9 6 10 6 8 5 7 4 6 3 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 56 57 57 50 58 57 60 58 66 70 74 76 75 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 25 26 26 22 23 24 24 24 22 18 16 13 10 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 6 -5 16 -16 17 24 98 78 78 30 46 -9 15 4 28 200 MB DIV 61 83 72 45 35 59 33 7 47 27 31 57 75 56 80 43 72 700-850 TADV 12 9 3 8 6 2 7 5 7 0 -4 0 -6 2 21 15 11 LAND (KM) 165 148 75 11 -60 -125 -75 0 17 -13 -44 -105 -66 -82 -78 -10 111 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.3 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.1 32.5 33.1 34.0 35.0 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.3 84.2 83.9 83.7 82.8 81.9 80.9 80.0 79.6 79.2 78.5 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 6 3 5 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 69 61 7 5 9 29 21 19 18 4 5 4 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -7. -13. -17. -20. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. 18. 17. 16. 9. 1. -6. -12. -19. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 84.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 42.5% 26.9% 15.4% 7.8% 21.6% 14.4% 20.4% Logistic: 9.4% 26.0% 17.4% 12.2% 3.3% 8.7% 3.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 8.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 23.3% 15.0% 9.6% 3.7% 10.1% 6.1% 7.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.1% 12.1% 8.0% 4.8% 1.8% 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 68 50 34 29 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 44 28 23 25 25 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 36 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT