* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 69 74 74 78 77 74 70 62 53 49 42 42 38 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 69 46 33 29 32 28 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 65 68 46 33 29 33 37 32 29 27 27 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 15 18 13 19 12 2 9 1 5 14 13 23 10 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -1 0 0 -3 -4 4 4 1 2 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 303 275 259 272 276 266 302 233 144 142 19 51 12 335 330 286 232 SST (C) 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.5 31.3 31.5 29.9 29.6 29.1 29.2 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.2 29.8 23.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 170 169 166 159 150 152 164 158 150 138 166 94 102 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 8 6 9 7 10 5 7 5 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 57 57 56 53 59 58 58 61 67 73 75 77 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 22 24 25 25 24 22 24 25 24 23 20 17 16 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 28 31 -4 -9 5 -15 29 42 62 66 56 13 23 -32 -8 40 200 MB DIV 51 59 68 44 46 66 15 31 38 64 5 81 28 55 48 50 73 700-850 TADV 1 10 5 3 7 2 2 6 3 1 -1 0 -4 4 -2 23 -39 LAND (KM) 201 170 163 111 38 -81 -103 -29 61 53 -52 -115 -119 -146 -126 -10 104 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.2 31.8 31.5 31.9 33.0 33.9 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.3 84.2 83.4 82.6 81.4 80.5 80.3 80.5 80.3 79.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 7 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 47 59 64 7 4 29 22 23 25 5 4 2 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. 4. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -12. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 19. 24. 24. 28. 27. 24. 20. 12. 3. -1. -8. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.2 84.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 26.7% 12.4% 9.1% 6.5% 15.6% 16.8% 21.2% Logistic: 4.1% 11.8% 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% 4.9% 5.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 9.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 13.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.4% 6.8% 7.4% 7.5% DTOPS: 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.5% 9.5% 4.6% 3.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 61 66 69 46 33 29 32 28 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 18HR AGO 50 49 55 60 63 40 27 23 26 22 19 20 20 21 21 22 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 54 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT