* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 66 72 79 80 81 81 78 72 63 56 49 46 41 39 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 66 72 79 44 32 32 29 23 15 22 25 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 65 71 78 44 32 35 39 42 40 32 28 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 8 12 10 20 11 8 9 4 6 6 11 14 5 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 1 -4 -4 -3 3 4 0 1 -2 -3 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 313 313 279 264 281 286 286 277 242 124 156 91 61 86 25 157 237 SST (C) 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.7 31.7 30.7 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 30.0 29.4 28.4 29.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 171 170 170 169 159 152 152 153 157 167 157 142 168 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 9 6 9 7 10 7 9 6 8 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 65 59 60 52 58 57 61 61 66 66 72 73 71 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 22 23 23 21 21 23 24 23 21 18 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 27 28 1 17 -18 25 14 75 54 76 43 41 41 48 39 200 MB DIV 33 43 59 68 58 47 64 32 6 49 19 26 38 96 83 76 61 700-850 TADV -3 2 7 6 2 8 2 6 3 6 0 -6 -2 -2 -13 16 -14 LAND (KM) 222 212 180 139 128 11 -120 -46 30 75 62 -7 -88 -167 -200 -117 41 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.8 30.7 31.2 31.2 31.4 31.9 32.6 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.2 84.2 83.7 82.8 82.0 81.1 80.4 80.1 80.3 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 56 55 52 50 57 58 6 15 25 21 22 26 6 4 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 7. 8. 5. 1. -4. -8. -9. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 27. 34. 35. 36. 36. 33. 27. 18. 11. 4. 1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.9 83.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 42.1% 27.5% 14.3% 7.3% 28.0% 30.5% 31.6% Logistic: 12.2% 45.5% 30.5% 23.8% 9.4% 32.1% 23.1% 6.9% Bayesian: 14.8% 6.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 11.1% 31.4% 19.9% 13.4% 5.6% 20.3% 18.0% 12.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 23.0% 12.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.5% 27.2% 15.9% 11.2% 4.3% 10.6% 9.0% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 59 66 72 79 44 32 32 29 23 15 22 25 26 27 29 18HR AGO 45 44 52 59 65 72 37 25 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 54 61 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT